Al-Qaeda Looks to Gain from the Changing Mideast & North Africa Environment

As we watch regimes in the Middle East and North Africa destabilize, we should be cognizant that terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda are looking forward to the changing political environment of the region.

A recent Reuters article focused on how one influential member of Al-Qaeda saw a major opportunity for the organization and like-minded organizations to have more influence in the region in the future.

• The article is available at this link

The article quotes Anwar al-Awlaki, Al-Qaeda’s most influential English-speaking preacher, senior recruiter, and motivator, who proclaimed recently:

"Our mujahideen brothers in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and the rest of the Muslim world will get a chance to breathe again after three decades of suffocation,"

"We do not know yet what the outcome would be (in any given country), and we do not have to. The outcome doesn't have to be an Islamic government for us to consider what is occurring to be a step in the right direction,

I think the quotes above might provide us with some insight into the current thinking of Al-Qaeda’s leadership.

• Many authoritarian regimes in the Mideast and North Africa have repressed religious groups and militant organizations as part of an overall effort to prevent people from organizing to challenge their rule over the past few decades. With the potential fall of many of these regimes, Al-Qaeda is anticipating an opportunity to operate in an environment where they are not persecuted as much by the new regimes that take power.

• Al-Qaeda does not need the establishment of theocratic regimes like in Iran throughout the region to benefit from the change in the region. Al-Qaeda benefits from a decline in persecution of it and like-minded groups. With less persecution Al-Qaeda and other like-minded groups may be able to recruit more members, acquire more sophisticated weaponry, organize more elaborate terror schemes, etc.

The most likely country where Al-Qaeda could benefit is Yemen where it already has a significant presence. The New York Times recently quoted people with knowledge of what is going on in Yemen who say that “counter-terrorism operations had already ground to a halt in Yemen” in the midst of the unrest. As a result, Al-Qaeda-backed rebels have been able to take over several towns in Yemen, including one major town in the southern part of the country.

• The following video discusses how Al-Qaeda is looking to benefit from the situation in Yemen: Link

The prospect of Al-Qaeda and other like-minded groups benefiting from a new political environment in the Mideast and North Africa is another example of why what is happening today is important in shaping the future. If Al-Qaeda and other like-minded groups are able to take advantage of a new political environment in the Mideast and North Africa by expanding, becoming better-organized, and better-equipped, etc they could become an even greater problem/threat for the West and for Israel.