My Thoughts on the Latest Pew Findings on Egyptian Public Opinion

Update: The Muslim Brotherhood seems to have found a way to circumvent the Egyptian constitution and have formed a new political party affiliated with it. They will contest up to half of Egypt's parliamentary seats in the upcoming election. Link

A couple of days ago the Pew Research Center released a survey about Egyptian’s views of ongoing events. The Pew Research Center has asked Egyptians about their views for the past several years, but this year’s results have a lot more relevance/significance because Egypt is expected to have a democratic election in the next few months.

• The potential arrival of democracy in Egypt brings new importance to Egyptian public opinion. Under Mubarak, Egyptian public opinion was relatively unimportant because Mubarak ruled as an autocrat. Under some semblance of democracy, Egyptian political figures are likely going to need to strongly consider Egyptian public opinion when proposing policies and formulating policy decisions since it will be the Egyptian public who decides their political fate (as long as democracy is intact).

Today I want to share some of my thoughts about Pew Research Center’s recent findings concerning Egyptians’ views of the U.S., Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel, and the Muslim Brotherhood.

One concern I have after reviewing the Pew survey is that Egypt appears to be a country that has potential to become a significant U.S. adversary in the future.

• Pew found that 79% of Egyptians have an unfavorable opinion of the U.S. The fact that a vast majority of Egyptians view the U.S. negatively is a strong indicator that a potentially democratically-elected government will have a negative stance towards the U.S. In addition, Pew found that 43% of Egyptians prefer that Egypt distance itself from the U.S. on a bilateral basis.
• If Egyptian political figures are responsive to Egyptian public opinion it will be in their strategic interest to adopt an anti-U.S. position since the vast majority of the Egyptian public views the U.S. negatively. The adoption of an anti-U.S. position by Egyptian political figures could eventually lead to an adversarial relationship between Egypt and the U.S as Egyptian political figures make policy decisions that the U.S. dislikes to credibly show the Egyptian public that they are serious about their anti-U.S. position.

The current military leadership of Egypt favors maintaining Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. However, there are real questions about whether a democratically-elected government would seek to maintain the treaty as well. Pew’s findings give me more reason to be concerned about whether Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel will survive in the future:

• Pew found that 54% of Egyptians believe that Egypt should cancel its peace treaty with Israel while only 36% of Egyptians believe that Egypt should maintain its peace treaty with Israel. If Egyptian political figures listen to public opinion regarding this issue the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty is in serious jeopardy.

Some new readers may be unfamiliar with why I believe we should be concerned about the fate of Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel. Therefore, I’ll again post why I believe the cancellation of a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel (and/or Jordan and Israel) could have significant Bible prophecy implications:

By cancelling a peace treaty, Egypt and/or Jordan would no longer be constrained by the agreements they made with Israel in the past and vice versa. (Perhaps it is a war involving Israel versus these countries and others that necessitates the need for the "covenant with many" mentioned in Daniel 9:27 and Isaiah 28:15-19)

The cancellation of one or both peace treaties would also make it much more difficult for peace negotiators to reach an all-encompassing Middle East peace deal because negotiators would have to get Egypt and/or Jordan to agree to a new peace deal with Israel (in addition to getting other parties in the region to agree to peace with Israel). An increase in the difficulty to reach an all-encompassing Middle East peace deal would increase the likelihood that Antichrist will be initially hailed as a “hero” by most people for accomplishing what seemed to be impossible when an all-encompassing Middle East peace deal is finally reached.

I know a lot of people are concerned about the prospect for the Muslim Brotherhood to take power at some point in Egypt. The results of the Pew’s survey suggest that the Muslim Brotherhood would have as good of opportunity as any other group to win significant representation in a new Egyptian government if they are allowed to have candidates in the upcoming Egyptian election (which they aren’t with the ban on religious parties forming political parties still in place).

• Pew found that there is no clear consensus about who should lead the next government of Egypt. However, the Muslim Brotherhood ranked second among Egyptians at 17%; trailing the top-ranked New Wafd Party by only a few percentage points.

Even if the Muslim Brotherhood is unable to gain a significant role in the upcoming, new Egyptian government, there is still a lot of potential for the Muslim Brotherhood to gain a significant role in the future.

• Pew found that 62% of Egyptians want the laws of Egypt to strictly follow the Koran while 27% of Egyptians prefer that the laws of Egypt follow the values and principles of Islam. The Muslim Brotherhood’s desire to impose Sharia law in Egypt will make them a compelling choice for the vast majority of Egyptians who would like to see a significant amount of congruence between the laws of Egypt and what is found in the Koran when they are able to field candidates.
• The Muslim Brotherhood’s potential to gain a significant role in Egypt politics in the future is also bolstered by the finding that 75% of Egyptians have a somewhat favorable or very favorite opinion on the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. The extremely high level of popularity gives the Muslim Brotherhood a much better opportunity to galvanize voters to think positively of them than a no-name political party when they are allowed to have candidates.

The ban on religious parties forming political parties may not last for an extended period of time if Egyptian public opinion plays a significant role in determining the outcome of this issue. Pew found that half of Egyptians view the lifting of the ban as an issue “very important” to them…

After reviewing the Pew Research Center's findings I would not be surprised if Egypt eventually becomes a much more difficult country for the U.S. and Israel to deal with in the future. I expect Egyptians’ negative views towards the U.S. and general dislike for their peace treaty with Israel to eventually move Egyptian political figures to adopt positions which are more anti-U.S. and more anti-Israel than what we see now from Egypt's current military rulers. If/when the Muslim Brotherhood enters the picture I think the likelihood of Egypt becoming a difficult country for the U.S. and Israel to deal with will rise even more…