Some of What to Expect Now that the Palestinians Will Pursue the U.N. Option

All indications are that the Palestinians intend to ask the United Nations to deal with the issue of Palestinian statehood this September. Palestinian Chief Negotiator Saeb Erekat and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have voiced their intention to fully pursue the U.N. option in recent days.

• Today I discuss some what we can expect now that the Palestinians have decided to take the U.N. route.

First, there is likely going to be a lot of diplomatic maneuvering in the next couple of months. Both the Israelis and the Palestinians will try to persuade countries, particularly European countries, to cast their ballots in favor of their respective side in an eventual vote.

• For instance, Abbas recently tried to recruit the support of Norway for a likely vote in September. Abbas also is visiting officials in Spain, Morocco, and Turkey this week in hopes of securing their support.
• To counter the Palestinians' diplomatic effort, Israel is attempting to build a “moral minority” consisting of some of the most important democratic countries in the world. Israel hopes that such a coalition would render any U.N. outcome effectively meaningless since it would not have the backing of some of the most important democratic countries in the world.

In addition, the Europeans, Americans, and others may still try to work to restart negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians in hopes of getting the Palestinians to reconsider the U.N. route. However, it's unlikely they can stop the process now since key Palestinian decision makers have fully-committed to the U.N. option publicly.

Abbas recently detailed the steps the Palestinians would take at the U.N.. Here is a brief outline of steps the Palestinians would take:

U.N. Security Council:

• The Palestinians will first ask the U.N. Security Council to recognize them as a full member of the U.N.
• Many expect the U.S. to veto the Palestinian’s bid to be recognized as a full member of the U.N. by the Security Council.
• The debate on this issue is scheduled to begin on July 26.

U.N. General Assembly: According to Abbas, the Palestinians would pursue this route if the Security Council option does not go their way. The General Assembly vote would take place in September.

• The Palestinians would ask the U.N. General Assembly to upgrade their standing at the U.N. from “observer” to “non-member observer state”.
• The Palestinians are expected to win the General Assembly vote. The U.S. cannot issue a veto.
• After this the Palestinians would return to the U.N. Security Council to ask for full-membership at the U.N. Erekat claims that the Palestinians would ask the U.N. Security Council to consider their request multiple times.

I still believe there is a lot of potential for this whole situation to lead towards a serious escalation in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, especially if the Palestinian’s U.N. bid does not lead to a major change in the overall the situation. Here is what I wrote awhile back about the potential for a large-scale escalation in the Israel/Palestinian conflict-particularly if the Palestinians get the U.N.'s support and little changes. I think a lot of this still applies:

The potential for an escalation in the Israeli/Palestinian conflict comes if the Palestinian leadership is unable to secure a Palestinian state soon. The Palestinian leadership may become disenfranchised with the diplomatic process and may consider conflict with Israel as a viable way to compel the international community to settle the issue of Palestinian statehood once and for all (the international community could be compelled to seek a way to settle the issue in hopes of stopping further violence). In such an event, I would not be surprised if other Mideast countries were to get involved to support the Palestinians and escalate the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict into a significant Middle East war. Middle East leaders could claim that they’re helping the Palestinians fight against Israel because they want to help the Palestinians create the state that the U.N./international community said they are capable of running but would not grant them under peaceful terms.

Many people’s concern about the prospect for the Israeli/Palestinian conflict to escalate is reflected in the talk about a Third Intifada.

• A recent poll of Israelis estimates that a majority of Israelis believe that a Third Intifada could arise regardless of how a U.N. vote turns out.
• A recent poll of Palestinians estimate that 70% of Palestinians believe a Third Intifada similar to the previous two could arise if there is deadlock in the negotiations between the Israelis and the Palestinians. However, some believe a Third Intifada could be more peaceful than the previous two.

Another potential outcome to consider is the possibility for Hamas, a group that many countries identify as a terrorist organization, to gain more influence over Palestinian politics if this U.N. bid ends in failure. Hamas reportedly opposed Abba’s decision to take the U.N. route. Hamas’ opposition to Abba’s decision puts them in a prime position to blame Abbas and others associated with him for anything that goes wrong. Abba’s loss could be Hamas’s gain…

I am not sure how this whole situation is going to play out, but we are quickly approaching the time when we may get a good idea of what the outcome of this whole situation may be. July 26 is only a week away while September is less than two months away.