Another Israel/Palestinian U.N. Update

During the past few months I’ve been trying to keep you up-to-date on the potential for an Israeli/Palestinian clash at the United Nations in the month of September over the issue of Palestinian statehood. Some additional information about what to expect in the next few weeks has been released since my previous article on the issue, so I think it is a good idea to provide another update on what to expect. Therefore, today I provide another update on what to expect with regards to the upcoming Israeli/Palestinian clash at the U.N.

We’ve known for awhile that the Israeli/Palestinian clash at the U.N. is going to take place in the month of September, but we did not know when in the month of September it would take place. Now we have a much better idea. The Palestinians will reportedly ask the U.N. to deal with the issue of Palestinian statehood on September 20, which is just over a month from now. Here is a (new) summary of what is expected to transpire at the U.N.

• The Palestinians are expected to first ask the U.N. Security Council to recognize them as a full member of the U.N. Although, the Palestinians expect to receive a majority of the Security Council vote, it is likely that the Palestinians’ bid will be vetoed by the U.S. The Palestinians cannot be fully recognized as a full member of the U.N. if the U.S. issues a veto.
• If/when the Palestinians’ bid is vetoed by the U.N. Security Council, the Palestinians are then expected to ask the U.N. General Assembly to upgrade their status from “observer” to “non-member observer state”. The Palestinians are expected to win the vote in the U.N. General Assembly, which cannot be overturned by a veto.
• Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will address the U.N. General Assembly on September 23. It’s currently unknown whether the General Assembly will have decided to upgrade the Palestinians’ U.N. status by the time the address is given. Regardless, the U.N. address will be delivered on an important day of that week (more on that shortly).
• The Palestinians claim they will ask the U.N. Security Council again multiple times to reconsider the issue after winning the support of the U.N. General Assembly for a status upgrade.

The Palestinians are expected to stage rallies during this upcoming time period in hopes of generating support for their U.N. bid. According to one article, the Palestinians hope that September 23, the day when Abbas addresses the U.N. General Assembly, will be a day where massive, pro-Palestinian statehood rallies will be held throughout the Arab world and Western world. Interestingly, September 23 is a Friday, the day of the week when those in the Arab world typically stage the most fervent demonstrations.

The Israeli military is concerned about what might happen at some local pro-Palestinian statehood rallies. The Jerusalem Post recently reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are preparing for “the possibilities of a large outbreak of violence or sporadic, large and non-violent marches towards Jewish settlements or IDF checkpoints”.[1] In addition, the Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF expects violent demonstrations to occur along Israel’s borders, including the Golan Heights-where the IDF is concern that Syrian troops may play a role in assisting pro-Palestinians protesters who may attempt to cross Israel’s border.

It should be noted that some Palestinian officials are also concerned about what might happen at these upcoming rallies. Palestinian officials are reportedly concerned about the potential for a Third Intifada to arise out of these rallies. Palestinian security forces have reportedly been ordered to keep the rallies from turning violent.

The fact that the IDF and some Palestinian officials are concerned about the prospects for violence to flare up should give a sense of what is at stake regardless of what happens to the Palestinians at the U.N. next month. There is the potential for a major escalation in the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict–perhaps even a Third Intifada if the situation gets out of control.

We are only five weeks away from what could be a very news-filled week and perhaps a very news-filled time period beyond that. Right now the event is not getting a lot of media attention outside of the Middle East, but I think that will change as the time of the event approaches. The event should start to get a lot more media attention soon.

Reference

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[1] “PA Sources: September Rallies Will Avoid Clashes With IDF”. 12 August 2011. Last Accessed 15 August 2011. http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?ID=233589&R=R1