An Observation About the Interesting Time We Live In

We have finally reached September, which has potential to be a big month in terms of important news relating to the Middle East. In less than three weeks from now, the Palestinian Authority will ask the U.N. to deal with the issue of Palestinian statehood. I’ve written about the Palestinians’ U.N. bid periodically and why it is an important development to watch. If you’re a new reader, you can find two of my most recent articles about the topic at the following links:

• Another Israel/Palestinian U.N. Update (August 15, 2011)
• Some of What to Expect Now that the Palestinians Will Pursue the U.N. Option (July 19, 2011)

Today I want to share an observation about the interesting time we live in and to briefly relate that observation to the situation in the Middle East.

We live in a time when a situation can change dramatically in a very short period of time. Some of the major events that have taken place this year illustrate how quickly and dramatically a situation can change

For instance, at the beginning of this year it was almost unimaginable to envision the Mubarak regime collapsing after thirty years in power. Nevertheless, we saw the end of the Mubarak regime in less than a month after a popular uprising in Egypt started in the latter part of January. The speed that events unfolded in Egypt was incredible.

Another example is what recently happened in Libya. Most people expected to see prolonged conflict in Libya once it became clear that the Gaddafi regime would not back down from NATO and the Libyan rebels. People’s expectations for an immediate regime change in Libya eventually became so low that articles describing the situation in Libya began to convey the sense that there would be a prolonged stalemate between pro-Gaddafi forces and anti-Gaddafi forces. For instance, the following passages from a July 30 Reuters article captured the sense that the civil war in Libya was expected to continue for a long period of time (brackets added by me):

“Whatever the truth [referring to the assassination of a Libyan rebel commander], the killing deepens concerns among the rebels' Western backers, keen to see them prevail in a five-month-old civil war but frustrated by their lack of unity and nervous about the influence of Islamists.”

“As Libya's civil war grinds on into Ramadan with no end in sight”

In addition, the following passage from a July 25 Al-Jazeera English article stated that the civil war in Libya was unlikely going to end quickly:

“The poorly armed opposition fighters seem unlikely to unseat Gaddafi quickly”.

Thus, it was difficult to imagine the Libyan rebels being in a position to break the stalemate in the Libyan Civil War as recently as a month ago. However, less than a month later, the Libyan rebels managed to take control of Libya’s capital city (Tripoli) and managed to oust Gaddafi from power. Another way to look at it, we are now reading about Libya's post-Gaddafi transition just one month after reading about how Gaddafi was unlikely going to leave power soon.

These examples show that we live in a time when a situation can change dramatically in a very short period of time, especially in the Middle East and North Africa. This is something important to keep in mind as we wait to watch events unfold later this month and beyond. Given how this year has gone already, it is conceivable that the Middle East picture could change even more dramatically by the end of this month or shortly after that. We could potentially be looking at a much more unstable Middle East if the concerns relating to the Palestinians’ U.N. bid are realized.

• We could conceivably be talking about a major deterioration in Israeli-Palestinian relations and a major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• According to one prominent geopolitical analyst, the Palestinians’ U.N. bid could play a role in an emerging Israeli-Arab crisis where Israel could potentially face conflict on three fronts.

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens later this month and beyond. We live in a very interesting time when events are changing rapidly, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. The upcoming Palestinian U.N. bid could be a potential catalyst that brings more significant change to the Middle East in a short period of time.