How Armed Conflict in 2011 Compares to the Past

The Center for Systemic Peace (CSP) has a website with a lot of interesting data and charts showing conflict trends around the world over time. I’ve included some of the CSP’s findings past articles, including an article earlier this year about which countries may be next to see instability if food prices were to increase further.

The CSP recently updated their website to include data from 2010 and data from 2011 in some cases. Today I want discuss a few of the CSP’s updates which help show how armed conflict in 2011 compares to the armed conflict in the past because I think many people may find the comparison interesting.

One of the items that the CSP tracks is armed conflict-in all its forms-since the end of World War 2. The CSP recently updated its data to include armed conflicts that have taken place recently in countries like Syria and Libya.

• With the CSP’s update, we can now see how the first nine months of 2011 compare with other years and get a better idea of how recent trends in armed conflict compare with past periods.

The first graph shows the total number of armed conflicts that have been waged each year since the end of World War 2. (Click this link if you cannot see the graph below)

You’ll probably notice that there was relatively more armed conflict around the world during the latter part of the Cold War than there has been recently and that global armed conflict reached its peak around the time of the Soviet Union’s breakup.

• Consequently, I do not think it is accurate to say we have an unprecedented level of armed conflict worldwide this year.

You’ll probably notice looking at the end of the graph that the total number of armed conflicts waged has increased noticeably in 2011. This is not a surprise given the changes that have taken place this year, particularly in the Middle East.

The next graph shows the total number of new armed conflicts initiated each year since the end of World War 2. (Click this link if you cannot see the graph below)

You’ll probably notice from the graph that there are several years which saw more new armed conflicts initiated than 2011. Nevertheless, there has been more armed conflicts initiated so far this year than any other year in this past decade.

Some people may be more interested in Middle East armed conflict trends than global conflict trends. Fortunately, the CSP provides enough armed conflict data to make it possible to compare armed conflict trends in the Middle East across different time periods. The following graph shows the total number of armed conflicts that have been waged in the Middle East each year since the end of World War 2. (Click this link if you cannot see the graph below)

10 armed conflicts have been waged in the Middle East in 2011 (with many still ongoing). This makes 2011 one of most active years in the Middle East since the end of World War 2 if you measure activity by the total number of armed conflicts waged in a year.

• I think it’s worth mentioning that the CSP considers the countries of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan (countries nearby the Caucasus Mountains) as countries belonging to the Middle East. I won’t question the CSP’s inclusion of these countries, but if you were to remove the conflicts involving them, the graph above would look a lot different. The following is what the graph looks like if you removed these countries: (Click this link if you cannot see the graph below)

It is important to recognize that not all Middle East conflicts are the same. The two graphs above do not distinguish between relatively “minor” conflicts and major conflicts like the Iraq War in 2003.

The CSP developed a method to categorize/score each conflict based on the level of impact it had on those directly impacted by it. The CSP takes several factors into account, including population displacement, to calculate the magnitude score of a particular conflict. The CSP has a graph which shows the total magnitude scores of armed conflicts waged in the Middle East each year from 1946 to 2010 at the following link:

• http://www.systemicpeace.org/rg5con10s.jpg

Again, the year 2011 does not appear on the graph. I made an effort using the CSP’s data to estimate the magnitude score for the first nine months of 2011. I estimate that the magnitude score for the first nine months of 2011 is 22, which is the highest value since at least 2003 when the Iraq War began.

It’s surprising for someone in my 20s to see much higher total magnitude scores in the late 1970s and early 1980s than today. I examined the CSP’s conflict list to see what conflicts were waged around that time period which could help account for such high magnitude scores. Here are some notable, relatively large-magnitude armed conflicts which were waged at that time:

• Syrian Repression of the Muslim Brotherhood
• Iran Civil War
• Iran-Iraq War
• Israel vs. Lebanon

I’ll let you decide whether armed conflict in the Middle East was more intense in the late 1970s and early 1980s than it is today. I’m just reporting the CSP’s findings concerning this topic.

There’s one more thing that you may find interesting concerning the Middle East. The following chart shows the total number of new armed conflicts initiated each year in the Middle East since the end of World War 2. (Click this link if you cannot see the chart below)

The chart above suggests that we have already seen a post-WW2 high in the number of new armed conflicts initiated in the Middle East during the first nine months of 2011.

• Out of the 5 conflicts initiated so far this year, 4 of the conflicts are still ongoing (the one that the CSP considers “over” is civil violence in Egypt associated with Mubarak’s ouster).

Conclusion
Overall, the CSP’s data suggest that we are not living in an unprecedented time of armed conflict around the world. We have seen periods of greater armed conflict around the world in the past, especially around the time of the Soviet Union’s breakup. However,

• 2011 has already broken a recent trend of relative peace with a significant uptick in armed conflict.
• The total number of armed conflicts waged in the Middle East is near a post-WW2 high in 2011.
• The number of armed conflicts initiated in 2011 has set a post-WW2 record.

One year does not make a trend, but I expect armed conflict to continue to increase in the future as the Middle East undergoes more change and as deteriorating global economic conditions lead to rising unrest in other countries. Consequently, I would not be surprised if we look back at the year 2011 in the future and note that 2011 was the year that armed conflict began to pick up significantly worldwide.


Note: You can access the CSP’s data, read CSP reports, and view several different types of graphs produced by the CSP at the following link