U.N. Security Council Vote on Palestinian Authority’s Bid May Come in November

Today I want to draw attention to an article that appeared in the Jerusalem Post around the time when much of the world’s attention was focused on Libya after the death of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. The reason I want to draw attention to the article is that it pertains to something I’ve written about periodically during the past several months: the Palestinian Authority’s U.N. bid. Specifically, the article is about the possibility for the United Nations Security Council to vote on the Palestinian Authority’s U.N. bid soon.

The article mentions that there is a meeting on November 11 where Security Council ambassadors are expected to decide on their response to the Palestinian Authority’s U.N. bid. The article mentions that the members of the U.N. Security Council could hold a vote on the Palestinian Authority’s U.N. bid if the Palestinians want a vote to take place.

• The Palestinians could get a vote called within 24 hours after the meeting or at any time after the meeting with the help of Lebanon, a current member of the U.N. Security Council.

The Palestinians want to get at least nine votes in favor of their U.N. bid to claim a symbolic victory if/when the U.S. issues its veto as nine votes represent the minimum number of votes needed for approval at the U.N. Security Council. The following is a breakdown of how the current members of the U.N. Security Council are expected to vote on the Palestinian Authority’s U.N. bid if a vote were held today:

Likely to Vote Against/Abstain/Veto
1. United States (Veto if Palestinians have 9 Votes)
2. United Kingdom
3. France
4. Germany
5. Colombia
6. Portugal

Likely to Vote For
1. Russia
2. China
3. Lebanon
4. Gabon
5. India
6. South Africa
7. Brazil
8. Nigeria

Unsure (Swing Vote)
Bosnia and Herzegovina

The Palestinians are expected to ask the U.N. Security Council for a vote before the end of 2011 because their chances of getting nine votes worsen at the start of next year when Guatemala replaces Brazil as a member of the U.N. Security Council.

• A U.N. analyst believes Guatemala would not vote in favor of the Palestinian’s U.N. bid if the U.S. applies pressure to Guatemala.

Regardless of how many votes the Palestinian Authority's U.N. bid gets at the U.N. Security Council, I think it is likely that they will take the issue to the U.N. General Assembly (where they only need a majority vote to upgrade their U.N. status from “observer” to “non-member observer state"-the equivalent to the Vatican’s status at the U.N.) because they will want to show their people that they got something from the U.N. experience.

I’m still unsure how this situation is going to completely play out over the next several weeks and months. However, I still think we may see something very important happen later as a result of this situation (like a major escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict and/or a major Middle East war).

Nevertheless, with a U.N. Security Council vote potentially coming as early as November 11, we may not have to wait much longer before the Palestinian Authority’s U.N. efforts and Israel’s reaction to their efforts return to the forefront of people’s minds…