No matter what happens in the world, the Middle East will always be a region to watch closely because it is the region where many Bible prophecy-related events will take place in the future. Perhaps the key Middle East issue that people who study Bible prophecy should monitor closely is the ongoing efforts to formulate a Middle East peace deal because there is a strong possibility that a future Middle East peace deal will represent the “covenant with many” mentioned in Daniel 9:27.
Today I provide a summary of the latest in the efforts to bring peace to the Middle East as it is a topic which has not been covered too closely by the mainstream media since the latter part of September.
The Palestinian Authority’s U.N. Push
At the time of this writing, the Palestinian Authority’s current request for full U.N. membership appears to have reached a dead end with the U.N. Security Council. The Palestinians require the support of nine Security Council members to garner a symbolic victory at the U.N. Security Council, but a U.N. report last week revealed that the Palestinians do not have nine votes.
- The Palestinians still can ask for a vote, but it is almost pointless for them to ask for a vote when they do not have nine votes at this present time.
- It’s also unlikely that the Palestinians will gain any advantage by waiting until next year to ask for a vote since composition of the U.N. Security Council is likely going to be less friendly towards the Palestinians.
The Palestinians are now looking at other options, including asking the U.N. General Assembly to upgrade their status at the U.N from “observer” to “non-member observer state”. The Palestinian Authority previously stated that they would seek an upgrade in status at the U.N. General Assembly if their bid failed at the U.N. Security Council, so there is a high likelihood that the Palestinian Authority will try to upgrade their status at the U.N. General Assembly next.
Israeli-Palestinian relations worsened a couple of weeks ago when the Palestinians gained membership in the United Nations Education, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The Palestinians getting a status upgrade at the U.N. General Assembly would be a much bigger deal than the Palestinians gaining membership in UNESCO in my opinion because a U.N. status upgrade would represent an implicit recognition of a Palestinian state by the U.N. I think you could see a much larger deterioration in Israeli-Palestinian relations if/when that happens than you saw after the Palestinians became a member of UNESCO.
The Quartet’s Ongoing Attempt to Make Mideast Peace Deal
The Quartet (the European Union, Russia, the United Nations, and the United States) are attempting to get the Palestinians and the Israelis together to negotiate with each other. The Quartet hopes to get a Mideast peace deal in place by the end of 2012, but they have been unable to get the two sides to talk to directly with each other so far.
- Thus far, the Quartet has not accomplished much besides getting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to provide them with a border and security proposal within the next three months. The proposal may show what Israeli leaders expect a future Palestinian state to look like.
- Although the Palestinians say they will work with the Quartet, the Palestinians still are unwilling to talk directly with Israel unless Israel first halts settlement construction and Israel agrees to use the pre-1967 borders as a basis for negotiations. Meanwhile, Israeli officials say that they are willing to talk to the Palestinians without any preconditions.
Expectations for the Quartet are so low at the moment that the Jerusalem Post published an article today entitled “Quartet Talks Unlikely to Jump-Start Negotiations”.
Will the Palestinian Authority Disband Itself?
There has been recent speculation that the Palestinian Authority may disband itself as a way to put pressure on Israel or to protest against Israel. While experts don’t believe the option is likely, it is something that cannot be ruled out if the Palestinian Authority concludes that the diplomatic route is not the way to go anymore.
What Does Disbandment Mean?
The disbandment of the Palestinian Authority would shift the responsibility to administer and secure the Palestinian territories to Israel. Retired Israeli Lieutenant Colonel Moshe Marzouk summarized the responsibilities and challenges that Israel would face if the Palestinian Authority were to disband:
“a grave punishment for Israel, forcing it to regain complete security control over the Palestinian territories as well as being responsible for the education, health and all other civil aspects of the local residents' life”.
"This will bring us back to the Arafat era, before there was a Palestinian Authority"
Here is a quote from a Palestinian living in Nablus (which is a city located in the West Bank) named Amid Duwaikat about what he thinks could happen if the Palestinian Authority were to disband.
“The state of chaos that prevailed previously in the Palestinian Territories could return again in full form if the PA is disbanded. So disbanding the PA would have a catastrophic impact from the perspective of security. Meanwhile, we speak about an unstable and fragile economy…what will be its fate if the PA is disbanded?”
I agree that the disbandment of the Palestinian Authority would likely create a lot of chaos for the sides involved. The danger with a potential power vacuum created by the disbandment of the Palestinian Authority is that it would open up the possibility for extremists to seize control or to exploit the situation.
The disbandment of the Palestinian Authority would probably also make it much more difficult for a Mideast peace deal to be reached because it would remove a party for Israel to negotiate with. Who will Israel negotiate with if the Palestinian Authority no longer exists? Hamas? I doubt it since Hamas does not even recognize the existence of Israel.
Final Thoughts
With way things are going, I don’t see how a “covenant with many” is going to be reached in the near future. Israeli-Palestinian relations likely will deteriorate a lot further in the future as the Palestinian Authority continues on with their U.N. strategy. In addition, I don’t think the Quartet will accomplish its goal of reaching a Middle East peace deal any time soon since they cannot even get the Israelis and the Palestinians to directly negotiate with each other.
There is one caveat: events can change quickly in the Middle East as evidenced by what has happened this year. Therefore, it is not out of the realm of possibility for the situation between the Israelis and the Palestinians to look completely different not too long from now.
We will all find out whether my assessment is correct or incorrect by watching what takes place during the next several weeks.
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