Will Vladimir Putin Survive the Current Challenge to His Political Power?

As you all know, 2011 has been a year of significant political change in various places around the world. We have seen people rise up against their longstanding leaders and demand for (and in some cases receive) political change. Given what has taken place this year, we should not be totally surprised that there are now political protests in Russia, a country which does not often see large political protests.

Tens of thousands of Russians protested this past weekend against parliamentary election results which many believe were fraudulent and demanded for new, free elections to be held. This event was particularly noteworthy because protesters also called for the ouster of current Russian Prime Minister and 2012 Russian presidential candidate Vladimir Putin.

Today I want to discuss whether Putin will survive this challenge to his political power and discuss what may happen in Russia as result of this challenge to Putin’s political power.

I do not believe that Putin will yield to political pressure like other leaders have this year for a couple of important reasons:

• Russia’s upcoming presidential election is about Putin rather than about his political party. Putin remains a popular figure in Russia despite the recent calls by protesters for him to go. A recent Levada Center poll found that Putin's approval rating is at 67%. Although Putin’s approval rating probably has dropped after Russia’s controversial parliamentary election, an approval rating in the low 60s or upper 50s is something virtually any democratic leader would love to have fewer than three months away from an election.

• There is no other presidential candidate who has a chance at beating Putin according to a political analyst Masha Lipman and according to this poll which shows Putin’s opponents getting hardly any support. The second most popular political party in Russia is the Communist Party, which is not a viable alternative for most Russians. Billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov announced his intention on Monday to challenge Putin, but he’s entering at a late stage with elections less than three months away.  

Where This Might Be Heading?
My gut feeling is that Putin is going to utilize these protests to help justify a major clampdown on the political speech and political opposition within Russia. The possibility of a political clampdown in Russia is something that should not be seen as fear mongering. Putin hinted at a United Russia Party regional conference months before he announced his intention to run for the presidency that he will cleanse Russian Politics following the presidential election in March 2012.

"I shall go to wash, in the hygienic sense of the word but also in the political sense".

I think of the political purges that took place in the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin when I think of political cleansing in Russia. Although a clampdown in Russia is unlikely going to be anything close to as severe and brutal as Stalin's purges, I think you could see Putin significantly ratchet up persecution against his political opponents and push for the passage of laws that increase restrictions on public gatherings and speech.

I can see Putin citing the protests as an example of how there is a threat to Russia's stability while attempting to justify the imposition of new restrictions as a way to "protect" Russia from descending into chaos. Putin has stressed before that he believes political stability is key to helping Russia endure difficult times:

"When a country is experiencing difficult, hard conditions, when it is emerging from crisis and getting back to its feet, these elements of stability -- including in the political sphere -- are extremely important"

Putin sees himself as the caretaker of Russia. Putin is a man that cited Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who won four terms as U.S. President spanning from the Great Depression through World War 2, to make the case that people should not worry about how long he rules for. Putin believes Russia needs to be stable under his control, so do not be surprised if Putin finds a way to utilize these protests against Russia's political establishment to push for changes that further ensure and strengthen his control of the country.

Russia's Constitution gives Putin the opportunity to hold the Russian presidency through 2024 if he can win two consecutive six-year terms. I believe Putin will have no problem winning the first of the two six-year terms. However, I do not envision Putin maintaining control of Russia all the way through 2024 because it will be extremely difficult for him (as it will be for many other world leaders) to politically survive the coming global economic and financial collapse I see coming. Even if Putin can hang onto power through the turmoil he may not politically survive the Antichrist’s efforts to amass power…